09 May 2006

Exit Polls

Now that the elections are over and exit polls have predicted some clean sweeps for DMK here are some of my thoughts on them

Why these exit polls might be right :
1. Except for M.G.Ramanchandran, no one has managed to get consecutive terms.

Why these exit polls might be horribly wrong :
1. No exit poll till now has managed to predict Tamilnadu results convincingly. Even if you take Hindu's methodology of exit polls, it says they took 77 seats and 11,000+ respondents. You now do the math.

So as a ardent supporter of "Amma" i would naturally like her to win. So a wait and watch policy till May 11th ! (Off the record i would give 150 for "Amma" and the rest to DMK combine)
K.Shyam

Posted by Shyam Krishnaswamy at 10:36 AM

6 Comments

  1. Blogger SunTVian posted at Tuesday, May 9, 2006 at 12:37:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    I saw two different news items, one from CNN/IBN/Hindu and another by Hamsa(?) belonging to the Times Group. Both predict DMK.
  2. Blogger Doctor Bruno posted at Tuesday, May 9, 2006 at 5:44:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    1. No exit poll till now has managed to predict Tamilnadu results convincingly... but the result was AGAINST THE RULING PARTY ALWAYS...... That means the rulingf party will get LESS THAN the seats predicted in Polls in Tamil Nadu, for the simple reason that the algorithm used by Yadav do not match Tamil Nadu......

    DMK will win 210 seats

    The first problem for ADMK is that the leader is under the delusion and does not believe in reality

    The second problem is that the "ardent supporters" are also in delusion and off reality
  3. Blogger K.Shyam posted at Tuesday, May 9, 2006 at 11:49:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    doctor : surprising you have not checked the facts properly.i hope this is not the way you treat the patients.
    all exit polls for TN till now have gone reverse not against ruling party.in 2001 a clean sweep for dmk was predicted and dmk was the ruling party then.so your argument of ruling party getting lesser seats is justified.now the exit polls is not even in favour of the ruling party.so your arguments, much like the hindu's are totally flawed.
    suntvian : sorry no comments will be accepted from partisan and partial entities.

    let's face it the exit polls all along till now have got it horrbily wrong. as i said before and say it again the only reason why amma can loose is not because of her lack of doing things but only if the people think "let's give others a chance" mould.
    agreed dmk was in power from 96-01.compare and contrast TN's growth in every index, every parameter, every imaginable scale with that of 01-06. you will then see the difference.that doctor, is reality.
    K.Shyam
  4. Blogger ada-paavi!!!! posted at Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 12:10:00 AM GMT+5:30  
    first i agree with u shyam,

    since u havent explicitly mentined why exit polls dont work, ill do the needful

    typical exitpolls ask respondents frm various regions and use tht to predict the share based on vote % and extropolate to the entire state.

    this method (folowed by hindu). elections typically are decided by margin voters (given that each side has a dedicated vote bank, whch tn does) therefore any poll would have to focus on the margin voters, now the problem is estimating the margin voters.

    secondly the sample size choosen might not be representative of the state and is highly prone to errors of sampling. and since all seats arent covered, it might not represent the peoples voting patterns.

    it hinges on vote %, but more than vote share, how dense the vote share is wht matters, like PMK with a small voteshare, but densely located manages to exercise some political clout.


    why did u stop allowing anon comments?
  5. Blogger K.Shyam posted at Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 12:19:00 AM GMT+5:30  
    dey vatsa : no anon comments coz some real crazy jerks went on a slandering match with my blog in the name of anonymous comments ! so decided to stop is once for all macchi !
    K.Shyam
  6. Blogger Abhinav Vinayakh Shankar posted at Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 5:24:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    Shyam, me predicts a DMK win.. Lets see.

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