13 May 2006

Analysis Paralysis

Now that all he din and dust has settled from the elections, i think it is time to look back and take stock.
I have always believed in one thing. Loyalty to anything is not just saying we are good, but accepting the defects and trying to rectify them. And since i am an "Amma" loyalist, i think we need to take stock of the defects and see if we can do something for that.
Now do not come back saying sacking of government employees was wrong crap. The courts themselves were appreciative of this fact. And do not say authoritative manner of governing. If not for making rain water harvesting compulsory, there is no scope of improving the ground water table. Yes "Amma" does go overboard once a while with her stuff, but that is a part and parcel of the way things work.
Now what are the defects with the way "Amma" fought the elections ?

1. First and foremost the current trend seems to be towards a coalition government. Though Vatsan and myself tend to be having some opinion differences over this, vatsa i would love to be proved wrong here. That being the case, i think "Amma" needs to take cognizance of this fact. She must try to rope in the fringe participants who will help her. A simple analysis of the votes percentage reveals that it was nothing but alliance arithmetic that did "Amma" in. Nothing to do with the way she governed or whatsoever. In fact in many constituencies, if you check you will see that she has managed to wear that too and win. The populistic manifesto proved too much in the end. We must acknowledge MK's shrewdness in knowing how to take the electorate for a ride.

2. One need not be too much worried about the populism factor. As the article in Indian Express said, as long as one does work towards development, the votes will come by itself. The victory in constituencies in chennai are a strong example for this. In fact it is known that MK is yet to satisfy his rice promise made back in 1967. The people who voted for MK based on the new found promises will know that they have been made fools yet another time. If you had voted for MK on the basis of something good that had happened to you fine. That is your wish and right.

3. I think the best way would be to continue doing whatever good that has been initiated. Be a constructive opposition and make sure that you dont fade away from public memory. You can afford to bide your time. It will come. And most importantly it is known that it is impossible to satisfy the promise of 2 acres and land and free power. So be aware of that fact and continue pressing the government for it. Make the people aware that they made a mistake by voting for false promises. That way, no other party henceforth will make promises they cannot keep.

4. Just because the other party does a populisitic campaing, there should not be a similar campaign from "Amma's" side also. It would be seen as a panic button triggering tatic.

And finally there will be lots of people around who derive certain pleasure that "Amma" has lost. All i can say is you know very little about dravidian politics. So all that you are having is a silly ego-gratification. Go on have it !!
K.Shyam
PS: To all those who are e-mailing me saying you are happy that "Amma" lost, the above lines are for you morons. When MK distributes 2 acres of land to everyone you come back and talk to me that day.

Posted by Shyam Krishnaswamy at 12:48 AM

4 Comments

  1. Blogger The Talkative Man posted at Saturday, May 13, 2006 at 5:37:00 AM GMT+5:30  
    JJ's biggest strength, an indefatigable spirit and iron will, has oft-times been her Achilles heel too.

    She made all the wrong moves in the first part of her tenure. A close-to-spectacular second half didnt bail her out unfortunately.
    Going through the numbers, I marvel at how many constituencies had victory margins of 3000 and less, as compared to 10K plus last time around.

    Like her or hate her, she cant be ignored. And she will continue to be a force even when our kids get to college!
  2. Blogger K.Shyam posted at Saturday, May 13, 2006 at 9:10:00 AM GMT+5:30  
    that's true. the problem with the first half of her rule was that it was pro-development and anti-populism. the iron hand in dealing with the strikes, conversion laws and stuff !
  3. Blogger ada-paavi!!!! posted at Saturday, May 13, 2006 at 1:42:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    shyam the important question is tamil nadu, which has always voted decisively, in for the coalition era? i dont think so. this time MK understood the lack of an anti incumbancy wave across the state and the arithemetic worked, secondly MK projected this election as his swansong, and garnered some sympathy votes.

    the desire of the people to see MK out of office was greater than having AMMA in office, this means that the anti MK vote got divided, you cud argue that if there was a coalition this vote could have been consolidated, that maybe, but the biggest spoiled was Gabtun who refused to align with anyone. if the desire to see MK in office was strong, then the DPA would have won the election TN style which it hasnt.

    even with a coalition excluding gabtun amma fortunes wouldnt have changed much!! its just plain and simple curcumstances tht allowed MK to sneak in and this is a one off election result, in the next election the state will vote decisively giving a clear mandate to one party, hopefully amma, but it looks like it might be gabtun
  4. Blogger K.Shyam posted at Saturday, May 13, 2006 at 6:47:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    machie vatsa;
    in some sense you are right da.as i said i would love to be proved wrong here :-)
    but i think chances for gabtun are not all that bright da.we need to wait and watch.he can also use this 8% vote as a bargaining tool the next time around with one of the dravidian parties
    K.Shyam

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