14 May 2006

Analysis Paralysis - Confusion

This analysis appeared in Hindu Today.

This is the analysis.
Now what is confusing to me is that, while the article reports that DMK has lesser percentage of votes that AIADMK, how is it that they got more seats ? If they got more seats because of alliance arithmetic, what did The Hindu use to narrow down the vote percentage of each of the alliance partners ? Something does not quite strike a proper bell.
Does the analysis make sense to you reader ?
K.Shyam

Posted by Shyam Krishnaswamy at 10:04 AM

3 Comments

  1. Blogger Doctor Bruno posted at Sunday, May 14, 2006 at 10:49:00 AM GMT+5:30  
    DMK contested in 132 seats where as ADMK contested in 188 seats....

    This 26.45 percent they have got IN 132 seats, where as ADMK has got 32.64 percent in 188 seats

    For convenience, imagine that each constituency has 100 voters.... So the total number of voters is 100x234 = 23400

    Of this DMK has got 26.45 % (6189) and ADMK 32.64 % (7637 votes)

    So you feel that ADMK has got more votes.... No there is a catch

    ADMK has got these votes in 188 constituencies... So vote PER Constituency is 7637/188 = 40

    SImilarly Vote per constituency for DMK is 46...

    Now you can see who is the winner

    Now if you compare the vote share in 2001 and 2006, you will have more surprises....

    Since DMK contested more seats in 2001, they would have had more votes 30 % and since ADMK contested only in about 140 seats, they will have less votes 31 %

    Now if any one compares the vote share across the years and say that ADMK's vote share has increased and DMK's vote share has come down by 4 %, he is obviously a fool

    The reason....

    In 2001
    DMK got 30 % (7020 votes in 180 constituencies - or 39 percent per constituency)
    ADMK got 31 % (7254 votes in 140 constituencies - or 51 percent per consituency)

    SO when you compare

    DMK has come up from 39 to 46 - A rise in 7 percent
    ADMK has come down from 51 to 40 - A fall by 11 percent
  2. Blogger K.Shyam posted at Sunday, May 14, 2006 at 12:21:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    >DMK has got these votes in 188 >constituencies... So vote PER Constituency >is 7637/188 = 40
    >SImilarly Vote per constituency for DMK is >46...

    how can such a blanket statement be true ? both of these parties had alliance partners. So in all constituencies, DMK votes will also be congress votes, commie votes while ADMK votes will also have MDMK votes.
    I think the final share of 45 and 40 is what is correct. The individual party tally is not quite correct.
    K.Shyam
  3. Blogger Karthikeyan....KK posted at Tuesday, May 16, 2006 at 6:24:00 PM GMT+5:30  
    The reason can be that in seats AIADMK won, they got substantially more votes than DMK. But in seats DMK won, the margin might have been closer. It is quite possible that the total number of votes for AIADMK are more than the total votes of DMK. So in absolute percentage terms, more people wanted AIADMK to win than DMK, but in terms of no of seats won, DMK took the honours and the CM post!

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